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| Economic Releases - Week of 8/30/2010
| Consensus | Actual | Positive, Negative
Neutral
| Comments | Monday 8/30/2010 | | | | | Personal Spending
| 0.3%
| 0.4% | (+) | A pick up in spending activity provides a bit of
optimism that consumers are confident enough
to increase their spending. The savings rate came
down slightly to 5.9% from 6.2%, but it is still at
levels much healthier than in the past.
| Personal Income
| 0.2% | 0.2% | Neutral | | PCE Prices - Core
| 0.1%
| 0.1%
| Neutral
|
| Tuesday 8/31/2010 |
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| Chicago PMI
| 57.5
| 56.7
| (-)
| Another sign of a slowdown in manufacturing.
| Consumer Confidence
| 50.0
| 53.5
| (+)
| Confidence improves for a change. While few think
the economy/job market will get better fast, there
was a slight uptick in the number of people that
thought the labor market and the economy will
improve in the coming months.
| Case/Schiller Housing
Prices Index
| 3.5%
| 3.6%
| (+)
| Nice to know that home prices are stabilizing.
Unfortunately, this is second quarter reading, and
it is unclear how the collapse in sales in July,
after the expiration of the stimulus tax incentive,
has affected pricing (most probably down - again).
| Minutes of FOMC
Meeting
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| Wednesday 9/1/2010 |
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| ADP Private Employment
Report
| 13,000
| -10,000
| (-)
| A pretty lousy reading of private sector employment
by ADP. We will have to wait until Friday to hear
from the government what the official stats are, but
the forecast is not very promising.
| ISM Index
| 53.0
| 56.3
| (+)
|
| Construction Spending
| -0.7%
| -1.0%
| (-)
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| Vehicle Sales
| 9.0M
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| Crude Inventories
|
| 3.42M
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| Thursday 9/2/2010 |
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| Initial Unemployment Claims
| 475,000
| 472,000
| Neutral
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| Continuing Claims
| 4,435,000 | 4,456,000 | Neutral | | Factory Orders
| 0.3%
| 0.1% | (-)
| | Q2 Productivity
| -1.6% | -1.8% | Neutral
| | Q2 Unit Labor Costs
| 1.1%
| 1.1%
| Neutral | | Pending Home Sales
| 0.0%
| 5.2%
| (+)
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| Friday 9/3/2010 |
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| Non-Farm Payrolls
| -118,000
| -54,000
| (+)
|
| Private Employment -
Non-farm Payrolls
| 42,000 | 67,000 | (+) | While still very weak, the unemployment picture
was not as bad as feared. The economy is not
generating enough jobs to absorb the new
entrants to the labor force; therefore, while better
than expected job generation needs to
improve significantly before the unemployment
rate see a significant sustainable reduction.
| Unemployment Rate
| 9.6% | 9.6% | Neutral | | Average Workweek
| 34.2
| 34.2 | Neutral
| | Hourly Earnings
| 0.1% | 0.3% | (+) | | ISM Services
| 53.2
| 51.5
| (-)
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